Serious weather outbreak this week?

Posted: Tuesday - 13 December 2011

New model updates show some very serious changes in terms of windstorm which is supposed to go above Europe and Poland this week on Friday and Saturday. Considerably a trajectory of the road of the depression changed and wind speeds on individual heights.

Model update from 18Z moved the entire formation further south and shows that wind speeds at different levels of the atmosphere will be significantly greater. If earlier it was supposed to blow only locally, now destructive gusts about hurricane power are expected on much larger area. It's also affecting what will be happening at us, especially in the west part of country. Despite the fact that pressure will grow from 950hPa to 970-975hPa, wind on 850hPa height becomes slightly stronger. It's correlating with a stronger flow on 300 hPa. Also favourable conditions for initiating convection will appear, therefore convective cells can generate wind gusts about 10-20km/h higher. Therefore it's possible that squall line will form, which on it's way will bring wind up to 120-125km/h. Generally it will blow quite strongly, especially in western and north provinces - here will blow up even to 100-110km/h. Above the rest part of country wind gusts can reach 80-90 km/h.

Low on 500hPa maps:



850hPa wind:



700hPa vertical velocity:



Everything looks very dangerous, especially in the area of France and Germany where windstorm can cause massive devastation. At us will be much better, but damage will be inevitable.